‘The worst environmental disaster since Chernobyl'

Jul 22, 2023

By CLEA CAULCUTT

06/07/2023 09:30 AM EDT

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Hi, Clea Caulcutt here, POLITICO's senior correspondent in France, bringing you the latest global news and analysis from Paris.

DAM SABOTAGE. The destruction of the colossal Nova Kakhovka dam is Ukraine's "worst environmental disaster since Chernobyl," threatening tens of thousands of people, the country's energy grid and the environment, said Ukraine's Deputy Foreign Minister Andrij Melnyk. According to Ukrainian authorities, as many as 16,000 people will need to be evacuated following the explosion on early Tuesday as the draining of one of Europe's largest reservoirs threatens water supplies, farming in the region and the cooling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Pollution threatens: Ukraine has blamed Russia, accusing the Kremlin of committing an act of "ecocide." In addition to the extensive flooding and drowning of animals downstream from the dam, Ukrainians are also ringing alarm bells about the pollution of waterways. Up to 800 tons of oil have been released into the water, which will drift into the Dnipro River and risk polluting the Black Sea, according to Ukraine's Environment Minister Ruslan Strilets.

Whodunnit? Russia has denied blowing up the dam, which it controls, instead blaming Ukrainian strikes. Kyiv has long warned of the danger of an attack on the dam. In October, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on the West to pressure Russia not to blow up the dam, which he said had been rigged with explosives. Experts also indicate Moscow has much more to gain from the destruction of the dam.

Potential war crime: United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has said the dam's destruction in the Kherson region is "another devastating consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine." NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the attack was "an outrageous act, which demonstrates — once again — the brutality of Russia's war against Ukraine." German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held back from directly pointing the finger at the Kremlin but said the attack "fits the way Putin is waging this war."

GEARING UP. Some have speculated that Russia has destroyed the dam in order to slow down Ukraine's long-expected counteroffensive. In recent days, there are growing signs that Ukraine is redoubling its efforts to drive out Vladimir Putin. On Monday, Zelenskyy said in his evening address that Ukrainian troops had been making some advances near the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, where fighting has been intense for months. Meanwhile Russia's defense ministry said it repelled a major assault in the Donetsk region, claims the Ukrainians have denied.

Yes and no: Despite the uptick in operations this week, it appears the counteroffensive has not yet begun, and instead the Ukrainians are testing Russian defenses for gaps and weak points, writes our colleague Jamie Dettmer. So far, there has been no convincing evidence that the dozen brigades that have been trained and kitted out by NATO for the counteroffensive have been used in the recent assaults.

Early signs: However Ukraine is already claiming some success in these early forays along the front line. And they are not alone in noting movements in the fighting. Several ultranationalist Russian military bloggers have also been bemoaning on social media the advances Ukrainian forces have made around Bakhmut and in northern Donetsk.

NEW SANCTIONS. Meanwhile EU countries are nearing a deal on the 11th sanctions package against Russia, with countries’ representatives hoping to get it over the line at a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday. However it's still unclear whether they’ll get there with several questions still open, several diplomats said. This package focuses on the anti-circumvention of the existing sanctions and includes a new mechanism to potentially punish countries outside of the EU that enable sanction evasion. But it has been sensitive for several EU countries, including Germany, which feared the new law could hurt relations with countries such as Turkey and China.

THE GOOD ITALIAN. French President Emmanuel Macron is meeting Italian President Sergio Mattarella for lunch on Wednesday as tensions resurface regularly between the two countries. Macron's relations with Mattarella are as good as his relations with Giorgia Meloni, Italy's prime minister, are bad. Meloni, the far-right leader who came to power last year, is giving the French president something of a headache.

Europe's champion: Macron has styled himself as a pro-European politician who is a bulwark against the rise of the far right in France, led by Macron's arch-foe Marine Le Pen. But as Meloni tones down her inflammatory rhetoric and plays ball with other European leaders, her rise risks undermining Macron's fight against the far right at home ahead of the European election next year.

Not buddies: Italian officials and analysts argue that Macron's allies don't pull their punches when it comes to Meloni's government in a bid to diminish their far-right opponents in France. Nicola Procaccini, an MEP with Meloni's Brothers of Italy party, says Macron fears Meloni's success "could be contagious and further weaken the French government." It doesn't help that France's Le Pen, daughter of the infamous far-right leader Jean-Marie, has embraced a similar strategy to Meloni, toning down her inflammatory rhetoric in order to broaden her appeal in France.

Diplomatic tiffs: Last month, Italy's Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani canceled an official visit to Paris after France's Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin said Rome was "incapable" of managing migration. The head of Macron's Renaissance party Stéphane Séjourné has also repeatedly attacked Meloni on issues spanning from migration to LGBT rights. The French however deny there is any bad blood and say Macron and Meloni work well together. "The migration issue is an irritant, but it is not a crisis between the President and Giorgia Meloni," agreed a French diplomat not authorized to speak publicly. Read more here.

SELFIES WITH OLAF. Macron is more eager to buddy up with German Chancellor Scholz, though. The pair walked through the historic city center of Potsdam on Tuesday evening and took selfies with bystanders, before heading to the noble "Kochzimmer" restaurant (one Michelin star) for dinner. Scholz had invited Macron to Potsdam, a city west of Berlin where the chancellor lives, as both leaders are keen to overcome their previous differences.

Differences remain: Both French and German spokespersons provided no immediate information about the talking points at the two-and-a-half-hour dinner. One official in Berlin said they’d likely spoken about a variety of issues on which they — at least partially — disagree: Those include security guarantees for Ukraine, relations with China, EU reforms (both on fiscal rules and qualified majority voting) as well as renewable energies and France's quest to classify nuclear energy as low carbon. Still, they’re putting on a more united front in public than previously. Macron will be back in Germany for a state visit next month.

ALSO IN PARIS. The top U.S. and EU trade officials are expected to meet on Wednesday in Paris on the sidelines of the annual meeting of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai is traveling to Paris and expected to continue talks with her European counterpart, European Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis, in the hope of finalizing a deal aimed at promoting trade in steel and aluminum produced with lower carbon emissions. The two sides face a self-imposed October deadline to reach an agreement or Trump-era duties on EU steel and aluminum could snap back into place, along with EU retaliatory tariffs.

UBER COMPLIANT. The once-rebellious hail-riding app Uber faces EU legislation that aims to overhaul its business model and yet it is pledging allegiance to the European market. "The European way is increasingly going to become the Uber way," Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi told POLITICO, characterizing the European way as "responsible capitalism, capitalism with protections."

Turning the screws. The European Union is finalizing a Platform Work Directive law that could make many Uber drivers and couriers full employees. The law takes aim at the lack of social protections and benefits in the so-called gig economy driven by apps organizing short-term work stints. Uber, for its part, has long been the poster child for the regulation-defying Silicon Valley firms that created the gig economy.

Not scared. Unlike some of its Silicon Valley peers — most prominently Facebook parent Meta — Uber is not threatening to pull out of Europe if the EU introduces new laws that hurt its business. Instead it's going on a hiring spree in Amsterdam.

GREEN HEALTH. The health sector is responsible for 8.5 percent of U.S. emissions of greenhouse gasses, which puts the American health care system above the world average. It's now facing a push from health professionals and Washington policy makers to decarbonize and reduce waste.

The big players. Hospitals are by far the biggest culprits when it comes to emissions and solutions include using greener medicine, closing leaky anesthetic gas pipes and increasing recycling. Shifting to greener practices and reducing a reliance on single-use devices may also help make health systems less vulnerable to potential shortages during pandemics or other emergencies. However all this comes at a cost, read more from our American colleagues here.

LISTEN TO POLITICO’S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.

HEADING TO D.C. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak lands in the U.S. on Wednesday for a whirlwind two-day trip. He will leave a wreath at the Arlington National Cemetery, before heading to Capitol Hill for meetings. Sunak is set to meet House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a longtime supporter of closer U.S.-U.K. trade ties. Prospects of a trade deal between the U.K. and the U.S. however remain distant, even though Sunak is looking to push a message of economic alignment during the trip.

BRITAIN’S TECH BRO. Sunak is set to discuss AI, China and Ukraine with U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday. Sunak's mission is to persuade Biden that the U.K. has a leading role to play in developing and regulating artificial intelligence, amid warnings AI could surpass human intelligence in as little as two years (but probably longer). It's also likely the two leaders will discuss energy security and Defense Minister Ben Wallace's undeclared bid for NATO leadership.

MOVES

— Jeffrey Prescott, deputy to the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, has been nominated U.S. representative to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

— David E. White Jr., a senior White House adviser, has been nominated deputy director of the U.S. Peace Corps.

— Ben Marc Diendéré, president of the Montreal Arts Council, becomes Canada's Permanent Observer to the African Union, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

— Sylvain Waserman, French lawmaker, has been appointed president of the board of France's environment and energy management board.

BRAIN FOOD

6 Swing States Will Decide the Future of Geopolitics, from Foreign Policy, on the powerful fence-sitters on Ukraine.

The Climate Solution That's Horrible for the Climate, an opinion piece about biofuels from the New York Times.

The myth of the ‘Asian century,’ an opinion piece about the rebalancing of the world on the FT.

CORRECTION: Monday's edition of Global Insider misspelled Alexei Navalny's name.

Thanks to editor Sanya Khetani-Shah and producer Sophie Gardner

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